In the two main centers in Berlin, the old district Center and the environment of the Ku dam, but also at the Grunewald and of course in the Prenzlauer Berg rents significantly above the model forecasts (on average in Prenzlauer Berg and Center about 20%). This must not zwangslaufig represent an overestimate of the rates, it may indicate in these cases also unobserved qualities. What is striking, however, is that the spatial distribution of deviations differ from the model forecasts in the purchase prices of real estate from the rental. In Neukolln stands out particularly from the results. Both rent and purchase prices are overestimated on the border of Kreuzberg which implies gentrification. Southeast of the Hermann square, rents are still not overrated, but the purchase prices: this may indicate expected Gentrifizierungsprozesse.
According to study evidence of real estate bubbles in Berlin markets of part of, the ratio of the overvaluation between rental and purchase prices significantly for this is generally, whether from an incipient bubble speak can or rather not. “” If fails the overvaluation in the purchase prices greater than the rental price “, so Dr. Yosef Gabriel Ahlfeldt, can this pattern be interpreted as an indication for the beginnings of a real estate bubble”. Because rental relatively well the actual ratio of supply and demand are reflected, the purchase price, however, above all expectations. Southeast of the Hermann square can occur therefore also to a bubble if not the expected Gentrifizierungsprozesse. In other areas, as large parts of the Prenzlauer Berg can speak already of an incipient albeit a small bubble. Maps and info to the PSI on the Internet de/showcase/new psi price / de/showcase/berlin-index-psi / initiators Dr.
habil Gabriel Ahlfeldt is lecturer in urban economics and land development at the London School of Economics and political science (LSE) and an associate member of the Center for metropolitan studies of the Technical University of Berlin (co-head of the urban) Economics Group). Dr. Nicolai Wendland teaches and his Habilitation at the Department international economics of the Technical University of Darmstadt and is also an associate member of the Center for metropolitan studies of the Technical University of Berlin (co-head of the urban economics group).